Liverpool may be running away with the Premier League title, but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t a fascinating race brewing. The race for Champions League spots has potential for high drama and could see both Manchester City and Chelsea miss out with third through 10th in the league separated by only six points with 11 games remaining in the season. There’s a good chance that England will end up sending the top five to the Champions League next season due to the UEFA Coefficients but even with that being the case, Chelsea and City are hanging on by a thread with teams like Bournemouth waiting to crash the party.
So, who could end up in the top five when it’s all said and done?
Current Premier League Top 10
| Pos | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 28 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 66 | 26 | +40 | 67 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 27 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 51 | 23 | +28 | 54 |
| 3 | Nottingham Forest | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 44 | 33 | +11 | 48 |
| 4 | Manchester City | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 53 | 37 | +16 | 47 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 52 | 36 | +16 | 46 |
| 6 | Newcastle United | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 46 | 38 | +8 | 44 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 45 | 32 | +13 | 43 |
| 8 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 27 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 43 |
| 9 | Fulham | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 40 | 36 | +4 | 42 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 42 |
Looking at current betting odds for the top five, Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea and Nottingham Forest are the favorites to join Liverpool,e but the gap between Chelsea and Bournemouth suggests that quite a few shake ups could happen before the season comes to a close.
Unlikely but it’s possible
Aston Villa, Fulham, Brighton
Rotation to keep up in Champions League has seen Aston Villa slide down the table in the Premier League, but with one foot in the last eight of that tournament, Unai Emery won’t be too peeved. There’s a chance that Villa could completely miss out on European soccer next season, but with most of their core intact, it could also provide a chance to quickly bounce back into Europe with a deeper squad and more experience.
Fulham and Brighton are the teams that are happy to be in the race, but it doesn’t feel like they can get it done unless they get hot at the right time.
Being within striking distance when other teams have multiple competitions will provide a chance, which is all that teams who are pushing for the top half can ask for at this stage of the season.
The case of the Cherries
Bournemouth are fascinating and if there’s a team who could crash the European party, it’s Andorni Iraola’s Cherries. Losing their top two strikers in Evanilson and Enes Unal, Bournemouth opted for Dango Ouattara to lead the line and it has worked to a great effect. Having the best goal difference of any team not in the top five and a schedule that sees them only face one team currently in the top five before the end of the season, Bournemouth are almost in control of their own European destiny despite sitting seventh in the current table.
Their defense has stabilized and under Iraola, they know what they want to do which goes a long way in times like this. It’ll still be an uphill battle but Bournemouth can do it.
Is this Eddie Howe’s time?
Newcastle United are in quite a weird spot. On one hand, they’re in the EFL Carabo Cup final where they can end a lengthy trophy drought, though they’ll have to do it by facing Liverpool without Anthony Gordon and Lewis Hall, so it’ll be an uphill battle at Wembley. Even if Newcastle win that match though, they could finish eighth, a very similar situation to Manchester United last season. The Red Devils kept Erik ten Hag following that and we all know how that went…
Not to say that Newcastle are in an identical position, but there may not be a team that needs a top-five finish more to validate their path than the Magpies. Cash-strapped and needing to make moves due to the Profit and Sustainability Rules and with teams circling around Alexander Isak, this seems like a turning point for Newcastle. They’ve been building something, but without European soccer to show for it, there’s a cap to what the club can do and the level of players that they can attract. Without that, there’s a chance that a change could be in order despite Howe’s best efforts.
Chelsea, City or Forest, who misses out?
History isn’t on Nottingham Forest’s side when it comes to unexpected teams crashing the party, but they’ve found a way to hold on despite facing Arsenal and Newcastle United. Facing Manchester City this weekend is massive as a victory would almost assure that Forest can hold their place in the Champions League spots. Even if they don’t win, the upcoming schedule has Aston Villa and a final day of hosting Chelsea which could be critical in determining the final standings.
Even with CIty’s poor season to date, it’s hard to say that they won’t finish in the top four because they have too much firepower when healthy. That’s not the case for Chelsea who have a brutal schedule facing Arsenal, Liverpool, Newcastle, and Forest before the end of the season. Just one dropped point could be enough to miss out on the top spots and Enzo Maresca’s team has not been playing like a top four or five side for a while now. He experienced a similar drop off in the back half of Leicester City’s promotion campaign in the Championship last season and if that happens again, Chelsea could be the odd team out.
Who makes it?
Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth
If I wrote this at the beginning of the season, it would be the most outlandish prediction ever and while it still feels weird, I like what I’ve seen from Bournemouth and the setup under Black Knight Football Club is moving the Cherries in the right direction. Some of the regular teams will be there, but the Champions League could be getting some unfamiliar English sides.
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