The Trump administration’s recent push for stricter immigration policies could lead to a significant decline in international student enrollment in US universities, experts have warned. After a period of recovery from the pandemic, international enrolments are beginning to rebound, but heightened restrictions, including visa revocations and funding cuts, threaten to reverse this positive trend.
In the past few weeks, federal immigration authorities have revoked several student visas, raided dorm rooms, and arrested students involved in campus protests. These measures, along with the potential expansion of the controversial travel ban from seven to 43 countries, have caused widespread concern among international students and their advocates. As of now, these policies could cause even greater disruptions to international student numbers than those seen in 2017 during Trump’s first administration.
Potential impact on enrolment
Experts are now predicting that the latest developments could lead to a downturn in international student enrolments, particularly from countries like India and China. As reported by the Inside Higher Ed, William Brustein, a former vice president for global strategy at West Virginia University, believes the international student backslide will be far worse than the 2.2 per cent decrease in undergraduate applications and 5.5 per cent decline in graduate applications following the 2017 travel ban.
Data from the National Science Foundation shows that while enrolment numbers had begun to recover post-pandemic, projections for the coming academic year indicate a potential 1 per cent decline in international student applicants. This marks the first time since 2019 that domestic applicants are expected to outnumber their international counterparts.
A growing financial concern for universities
International students have become a vital financial lifeline for many US universities, especially as domestic enrolments stagnate. According to the Institute of International Education (IIE), 81 per cent of undergraduate international students and 61 per cent of graduate students fully fund their tuition. Any reduction in enrolment would have a direct financial impact, particularly for institutions offering expensive graduate programmes.
The Inside Higher Ed reported that the Trump administration’s recent cuts to federal research grants, which fund many international graduate students, could add to the financial strain. The cancellation of grants from agencies like the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation has raised concerns about how international students will afford their degrees.
Growing concern among Indian students
Of particular concern is the growing number of Indian students, who accounted for a 23 per cent increase in enrolments last autumn. However, the recent case of Indian graduate student Ranjani Srinivasan, who was targeted by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) after participating in a protest, is causing alarm. Srinivasan fled to Canada after her visa was revoked, a development that is already making waves in India, as reported by Rajika Bhandari, principal of Rajika Bhandari Associates. She stated, “Indian families back home are always sensitive and attuned to the status and welfare of Indian students already in the US,” suggesting that such incidents could further discourage prospective Indian students.
As the situation develops, the future of international student enrolment in the US appears increasingly uncertain, with many fearing that Trump’s immigration crackdown could reverse the progress made in recent years.
