Liverpool may have to get used to life without Trent Alexander-Arnold. The best case scenario for Arne Slot, football chief executive Michael Edwards or owners FSG is that his absence is only for the immediate term due to the ankle injury he suffered against Paris Saint-Germain. The drumbeat of speculation that the right back is bound for Real Madrid is only intensifying.
It is barely more than three months until Alexander-Arnold’s contract expires. While there is a legitimate debate to be had over the terms around which you might extend his fellow soon to be free agents — Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk — now that they are in their 30s, it would take pretty extreme demands to make Alexander-Arnold anything other than a must sign. He is still just 26, vice captain of the club and as homegrown as they come, the West Derby lad having first joined his boyhood club as a six-year-old.
He is also irreplaceable. If Alexander-Arnold goes to Real Madrid there is no mark two out there. Anyone who even approximates the England international’s skills is going to set Liverpool back big money, while the superior option walks out the door without a transfer fee (there is an outside chance that FIFA opens the summer window early for clubs like Madrid who are competing in the Club World Cup and Liverpool could then get a small fee to let Alexander-Arnold go a few weeks before his contract expires on June 30).
To understand the transformative impact of Alexander-Arnold, consider the following list. Mohamed Salah, Kevin De Bruyne, Florian Wirtz, Vinicius Junior, Bruno Fernandes, Thomas Muller, Bukayo Saka, Julian Brandt, Kylian Mbappe, Rafael Leao: those are the players with more assists than Liverpool’s right back (38) across league and European play since the start of the 2021-22 season. The raw output of Alexander-Arnold isn’t just outstanding for a defender. It’s world class for a forward.
His 41.52 expected assists (xA) is bettered only by Bruno Fernandes and Joshua Kimmich. Only Kimmich, the tempo-setting midfielder for a dominant Bayern Munich side in Germany, gets the ball into the final third more. Alexander-Arnold ranks in Europe’s top 12 for progressive passes, expected possession value, chances created and big chances created to name but a few. There are only a handful of better crossers in the sport than Alexander-Arnold, a deadball wizard who would fit nicely in the lineage of Roberto Carlos, David Beckham and Toni Kroos.
This year has had the feel of a down one for Alexander-Arnold, a little more cautiously deployed by Arne Slot. He still has the fourth most xA in the Premier League and ranks top 20 in chances created per 90, ahead of the likes of attackers like Anthony Gordon and James Maddison.
In a Madrid side that dominates all but a handful of opponents he would thrive. His defensive weaknesses have been frequently highlighted during his time with Liverpool, and it is fair to say that the best left wingers can put Alexander-Arnold in a blender. No trouble, he’d be playing with both of them if he makes the move to Spain. Jurgen Klopp made adjustments that allowed his right back to bomb on with abandon but they are hardly beyond the wit of Carlo Ancelotti, or whoever his successor might be. A mobile right-sided center back, a defensive midfielder who can drop deeper to aid build up: Madrid have those players on the roster anyway.
As for Liverpool, they’ll do extremely well to find a replacement on the market. If you want the ball progression there are a few midfielders and inverted full backs who might do a job but you won’t get the final third creation. To get that you might need a more up down full back, best of luck getting them to control a game from anywhere on the right flank.
For a time it looked like Reece James might emerge as a serious rival to the title of world’s best right back, but being a one man flank has extracted a heavy price on the Chelsea captain. The nearest comparison to Alexander-Arnold that could even be theoretically extracted from their current employers might be Pedro Porro. Tottenham would surely charge a high price for him, and he’s certainly no Alexander-Arnold.
Liverpool have a talented young right back on their roster and, when Conor Bradley has managed to stay healthy, the clamor that he might be a ready-made Alexander-Arnold successor has soon followed. At just 21 years of age Bradley is clearly a serious talent and, given that Slot is believed to want to strengthen his strikeforce this summer, there is a compelling case to be made that the best way to replace a player lost for next to nothing is one who will cost next to nothing.
Still, that would leave Liverpool with a hole to fill shaped like 1.2 chances per 90, 0.17xA, 10 passes (seven of them into the attacking third) and a host of other elite production metrics. The only right back that could fill that sort of gap is Alexander-Arnold. It will take a whole team to paper over the cracks his departure will leave.
