NEW DELHI: “We will follow what Kejriwal did in Delhi.” No, Suvendu Adhikari, Leader of the Opposition (LoP) in the West Bengal Assembly, wasn’t referring to model schools or mohalla clinics. Instead, the former TMC strongman was drawing parallels to the unceremonious expulsion of Vijender Gupta from the Delhi Assembly when AAP enjoyed a supermajority, juxtaposing it with Gupta’s recent elevation as Speaker. Suvendu’s assertion was that once the BJP assumes power in Bengal next year, Muslim TMC MLAs who manage to win will be picked up and thrown out of the Assembly—just as Gupta had been removed.
A dynast politician best known for defeating Mamata Banerjee in the 2021 Assembly elections from his home turf of Nandigram, Suvendu has steadily escalated his anti-Muslim rhetoric since his induction into the BJP. However, even by his standards, this latest remark has sent shockwaves across Bengal’s political landscape, drawing sharp rebukes from opposition ranks, including the Chief Minister herself. Speaking from the Assembly, Mamata Banerjee vowed to protect the interests of all communities and warned Suvendu against “playing with fire.” Meanwhile, a mid-level Congress leader, former MLA Viktor, has filed an FIR against the LoP. The crucial question, however, is why Suvendu is adopting such an incendiary tone when the state elections are still more than a year away.
Decoding the statement
To many observers, Suvendu’s latest outburst is a desperate attempt to keep his flock intact amid swirling rumours that nearly eight BJP MLAs are on the verge of defecting. In 2021, the BJP had surged from three to a record 77 seats, largely on the back of an en masse shift in votes from the Left and Congress. This catapulted the party to the position of principal opposition, with Suvendu playing a pivotal role in the turnaround. Expectedly, he was rewarded with the LoP post, making him the most visible face of Bengal BJP, gradually overshadowing veterans like Dilip Ghosh and Sukanta Majumdar. However, subsequent electoral outcomes have not favoured the BJP. It’s number in the Assembly has steadily dwindled, with unofficial count of around 65. The party’s Lok Sabha tally in Bengal shrank from 18 to 12. Subsequently, it failed to capitalise on public anger over the RG Kar incident, where urban pockets of the state erupted in protests over the rape and murder of a young doctor. In by-elections held after the protests, BJP won nothing even losing seat it had previously held. The defection of Haldia MLA Tapasi Mondal further weakened Suvendu’s grip—especially since Haldia, a crucial port town in his home district of Purba Medinipur, has long been considered his pocket borough. A mutiny in his backyard signalled to TMC that even Purba Midnapore could be in play in 2026. Against this backdrop, Suvendu’s aggressive rhetoric serves as a strategic ploy to shift focus from BJP’s precarious position to the more convenient narrative of Hindu-Muslim polarisation, ensuring that former Left and Congress voters who had switched to the BJP do not reconsider their allegiance.
Left-Congress dilemma
For the Left, which ruled Bengal for over three decades, the crisis is existential. Its vote share plummeted from 26% in 2016 to just over 5% in 2021. The party’s performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections remained lacklustre, mirroring Congress’s struggles. Both parties have failed to grasp Bengal’s evolving political climate, where welfare politics and religious identity now determine electoral fortunes—a stark departure from the days when ironclad ideology alone dictated voting patterns. The Left’s lack of prominent mass leaders hastened its decline, while its alliance with Congress has yielded minimal electoral dividends due to limited vote transfer capabilities. Yet, the RG Kar protests backed by Left supported forces briefly rekindled interest about them among Bengal’s intelligentsia. Whether this translates into electoral gains remains uncertain, but Suvendu’s renewed pitch threatens to derail any organisational resurgence the Left may have hoped for. Unsurprisingly, the Left has maintained a guarded stance on the issue, criticising both TMC and BJP. Its votes are scattered across the state—insufficient to win seats outright but enough to play spoiler in a really close contest. That leverage is precisely what Suvendu seeks to neutralise.
Congress’s situation is slightly different. Its vote base is primarily concentrated in three North Bengal districts—Malda, Murshidabad, and North Dinajpur—where it competes with the TMC for Muslim votes, particularly in Malda and Murshidabad. Unsurprisingly, the party has taken a more combative stance than the Left, registering vociferous protests, filing FIR, and vowing to safeguard Muslim interests. However, political analysts argue that with the deepening of religious fault lines, these tactics may not suffice.
A calculated electoral strategy?
Political commentator Sibaji Pratim Basu believes Suvendu’s statements are not impulsive but part of a calculated strategy. Bengal’s Muslim population stands at around 31%, with the majority voting for TMC. Mamata Banerjee understands that even securing 25-30% of the Hindu vote ensures a decisive victory under the first-past-the-post system. With extensive welfare schemes targeting women, TMC starts from an advantageous position. Suvendu’s objective is to fracture this vote bank, attempting to consolidate Hindu votes in BJP’s favour. However, Professor Basu dismisses this as a pipe dream. He also believes that as long as Narendra Modi remains Prime Minister and the BJP holds national power, Bengal’s Muslim voters are unlikely to abandon Mamata Banerjee. He suggests that only a shift in Delhi’s political landscape could trigger a realignment of Muslim votes in Bengal—but until then, the TMC has little to worry about.
Himanta Biswa Sarma playbook
Suvendu likely understands this reality, which explains why he has all but abandoned efforts to woo Muslim voters. Instead, he is emulating the playbook of Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. In Assam, where Muslims form a significant demographic, Himanta has aggressively consolidated Hindu votes by raising voice against ‘Miya Muslims’—who originally hailed from present day Bangladesh—questioning their presence in Upper Assam and portraying them as a demographic threat to indigenous Assamese communities. From the Assembly, Himanta made it clear that he would not allow ‘Miya Muslims’ to dominate Assam’s political discourse. Suvendu appears to be taking a similar approach in Bengal.
Mamata Banerjee, while condemning Suvendu’s remarks, also took the opportunity to attack his shifting political allegiances, remarking that he would readily switch sides again if offered the right deal. The West Bengal CM denounced Suvendu’s comments as unbecoming of a leader of his stature, accusing him of deliberately making polarising statements during Ramzan to provoke Muslim sentiments. Interestingly, Mamata also claimed she had instructed Minister and Kolkata Mayor Firhad Hakim and others to refrain from making religious comments tacitly acknowledging that opposition allegations of appeasement politics—though largely exaggerated—were not entirely baseless. She cleverly roped PM Modi into the debate, questioning why Suvendu takes issue with Muslim communities in Bengal but remains silent when Modi praises Arab nations during his foreign visits. Invoking the teachings of Ramakrishna and Vivekananda, Mamata accused Suvendu of promoting a version of Hinduism incompatible with the scriptures and seers. While Mamata exercised restraint, one of her party MLA, Humayun Kabir, has already threatened Suvendu Adhikari of dire consequences if he doesn’t withdraw his statement. BJP leader though wasted no time to reject Humayun’s demand.
Road Ahead for non-BJP parties
Mamata’s balancing act is evident—she seeks to reassure her Muslim base without alienating Hindu voters. Even on the Bangladesh issue, she has taken a proactive stance, preempting BJP’s attempts to polarise voters, by repeatedly questioning what the Modi government is doing to protect Hindu interests there. Mamata Banerjee has also warmed up to ISF, a party predominantly catering to Muslim constituents. This is to counter AIMIM, which has already announced that it will contest in all seats in Bengal. It believes the state has close to 40% Muslim votes and deserves a party like AIMIM.The INDIA alliance remains in limbo and TMC has already announced it will contest the Assembly election alone, like the Lok Sabha polls. While the Congress and Left may or may not ally, their challenge remains formidable, they must first establish themselves as a credible opposition force.
For now, Suvendu Adhikari has ensured that the political discourse in Bengal remains firmly centered on polarization, a calculated gamble. With Mamata Banerjee adeptly navigating the tightrope between reassuring Muslim voters and addressing Hindu concerns, the BJP has its work cut out. But at least it doesn’t need to worry too much about significantly sharing the opposition space with Left-Congress.
