RBI may cut rates at its February 7 monetary policy meeting: SBI Research

SBI Research expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for February 5-7.

The firm’s latest report suggests a cumulative rate cut of at least 75 basis points over the cycle, with two successive cuts in February and April, followed by a pause in June, and the next round of cuts possibly starting from October 2025.

CPI inflation is projected to ease in the coming quarters, with estimates at 4.5% in the March quarter (Q4FY25) and an average of 4.8% for the full fiscal year.

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January inflation is trending closer to 4.5%, while FY26 inflation is expected to average between 4.2% and 4.5%.

By October-December 2026, inflation could drop below 4%. Meanwhile, core inflation is likely to surpass headline inflation by September 2025, SBI Research stated in its report.

Retail inflation in India eased to a four-month low of 5.22% in December 2024 mainly due to easing of prices in the food basket, data released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation showed on January 13.

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SBI expects global economy to grow around 3.2% despite uncertainties from trade wars, with inflation likely to ease. New trade wars could reduce global GDP growth by 0.3-0.5%, with varying effects across regions based on their economic structure and business cycle.