Arsenal need goals. What the transfer window won’t provide they must find within their limited options, because a two goal deficit at St. James’ Park is an intimidating task for all but the most free scoring of sides.
On Sunday that is just what the EFL Cup semifinalists looked like, the goals raining down on Manchester City in perhaps the most resounding triumph so far in Mikel Arteta’s tenure. In the immediate aftermath belief coursed through the squad. They were not just expecting to overturn their first leg deficit to Newcastle, but to do so in style.
“We are going to go there to win the game and to score three, four, five,” said Gabriel Martinelli. Arteta was not less exuberant. “Next stop is a final in Wembley,” he said in his pre-match press conference. “You can feel it straight away, the pulse that the game gave us, winning against City, the manner we did it. We’re going to give it a real go.”
Arsenal vs. Manchester City score, highlights: Gunners destroy Pep Guardiola’s side in Premier League clash
Pardeep Cattry
In the aftermath of their explosion in output on Sunday, their 2-0 loss at the Emirates Stadium takes on a different complexion. Sometimes you’ll put up exactly one expected goal and score five. Sometimes you’ll clear three xG and score none. In microcosm, the recent form of Kai Havertz typifies that of Arsenal as a whole. For all the trials and tribulations, the opportunities keep coming.
This was the point Arteta was intent on hammering home after that brace of draining cup defeats, first to Newcastle and then Manchester United in the FA Cup third round. Havertz was the poster boy for an avalanche of missed openings, ever since the familiar “Arsenal need a true, true striker” talking point — one which legitimately dates back to the first interview I ever conducted covering London football — has grown more noisy. Havertz, meanwhile, has three goals and two assists in his last four starts.
How to watch and odds
- Date: Wednesday, Feb. 5 | Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: St. James’ Park — Newcastle upon Tyne, England
- Live stream: Paramount+
- Odds: Newcastle United +220; Draw +250; Arsenal +115
Arsenal keep creating chances
Through it all, Arsenal have kept getting themselves in the right spots. Indeed, they are doing so with increased regularity even as the season has worn them down. Prior to the November international break this was a team averaging 1.5 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per game. Since then, that number has risen to 1.8. They are averaging an extra goal every two games, a shot more per match.
Even without Bukayo Saka, the player whose precision and composure in front of goal might just have meant one or more goal from the six big chances they missed in the first leg, the npxG has dropped off only marginally. Take their best player out of the team, sideline backup striker Gabriel Jesus for the season, and this is still a team that can put up 15 shots a game, a boatload of them decent chances, all while blotting out the best forwards in the game at the other end. What do Arsenal need to do, then, to overturn their first leg deficit? The same thing they’ve been doing all along.
All of which goes some way to explaining why Arsenal held back on deadline day. “We are very aware that we only want to bring certain kinds of players,” said Arteta. “We have to be very disciplined with that. I think we were.”
Their rationale proved to be that a warm body for the sake of a warm body was no way to conduct transfer business. Whether Kai Havertz will feel the same come the March international break, which will come after a run of six games in 22 days for the Gunners, is up for debate now. The calendar might afford them a trip to Dubai after Wednesday’s game, from then on it looks like a sprint to the finish line for Europe’s top sides.
What is the backup plan for Havertz?
Leandro Trossard is the only approximation of a back up for Arsenal’s first choice center forward. The problem is they need him to plug the Saka-shaped hole in wide areas, where otherwise it is Martinelli, Ethan Nwaneri and the extremely not fancied by management Raheem Sterling. Both of those were also thrown out by Arteta as options to play up front with the manager acknowledging “something different” will have to be tried.
Arsenal can contend they tried for something more meaningful. Had PIF not concluded that Al-Nassr would be getting Jhon Duran rather than Victor Boniface, there would have been a deal to be done for Ollie Watkins. Reviving their interest in Benjamin Sesko was considered, but RB Leipzig, vying to qualify for next season’s Champions League, considered the monetary value of having that striker in their side to outweigh any realistic incentives Arsenal could offer to do the deal early.
Mathys Tel was linked, but only fleetingly considered. Anyway Tottenham and Manchester United were in a position to offer a more pronounced first team role. While his fanbase bemoan a third window where serious money has not been invested in strengthening the attack — Havertz was convinced to sign for Arsenal precisely because he wouldn’t be playing as a striker, Sterling a last gasp, low cost swing — Arteta is keen to move on. “When you try your best and do things with the right process and see the people that all share the same intentions and wills and after you don’t achieve it, ok. For sure there are things to learn from it, there always are.
“You have to move. That’s a piece that was important in the moment. Now we have to move on. No one knows if it was better to have done it or not. We will know at the end of the season.”
The signs might be apparent long before then. Wednesday night’s game is not the one Arsenal should have been recruiting for and so many of the noises around the club and from Arteta speak to the desire to add real quality. There is, however, a level below that to which Arsenal did not really dip. For want of a better term, they will need a minutes eater before this season is out. A senior striker who can step in for Havertz with 20 minutes left in a game that is already won, who can start against a Leicester or Ipswich with better options in reserve. A smash glass in case of emergency forward. Another Raheem Sterling, you might say, their own equivalent to what somebody like Joselu was last season for Real Madrid.
After all, there could be a lot more games like Wednesday’s ahead of them. More occasions like this will come in the Champions League, perhaps even the title race. Arsenal owed it to themselves to do all they could to ensure Havertz and company were as fresh as possible for those big games. It is hard to see how that can be true.
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