Mega CNBC-TV18 Poll: Mixed views on RBI rate cuts as new governor takes charge

As the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) enters a new chapter under Governor Sanjay Malhotra, market participants are closely watching the central bank’s monetary policy moves, particularly the timing and magnitude of the first repo rate cut.

A CNBC-TV18 Mega Poll, which surveyed 61 fund managers, high-net-worth individuals (HNIs), and dealers, revealed a broad range of expectations for the RBI’s policy trajectory through 2025.

Nearly half of the respondents (48.3%) expect the first repo rate cut to occur in the January-March 2025 quarter (Q4FY25), while 38.3% anticipate the easing cycle to begin in April-June 2025 (Q1FY26).

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Smaller segments predict rate reductions in the July-September 2025 (8.3%) and October-December 2025 (5%) quarters.

The poll also explored views on the cumulative reduction in the repo rate by the end of 2025.

About 49.2% of respondents foresee a 50 basis point (bps) cut, while 19.7% expect a more aggressive reduction of over 50 bps. 31.1% predict a less substantial cut of under 50 bps.

Sanjay Malhotra, a 1990-batch IAS officer from the Rajasthan cadre, has assumed office as the RBI’s 26th governor, beginning his three-year term on December 11.

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