The seventh round of UEFA Champions League action is underway as teams start to confirm their safe passage into the knockout phase. Although the field is relatively open, Liverpool and Barcelona have now booked their round of 16 berths and confirmed that they will avoid the playoffs. Atletico Madrid and Atalanta BC have also booked their passage to the elimination phase although they could seal a top eight place. The list of eliminated clubs has grown too with Bologna, Red Star Belgrade and Sturm Graz added to the pile.
We take a look at the state of play as Champions League action continues this Wednesday.
UCL top 8
Confirmed: Liverpool and Barcelona.
Arne Slot’s Premier League and Champions League leaders became the first team to confirm their presence in the round of 16 by beating Lille on Tuesday. The Reds can confirm 100% winning status with just one more victory over PSV Eindhoven and it is difficult to see the Merseysiders throwing things away now. If anything, they are highly likely to finish the league phase with eight wins from eight games given their impressive 100% winning record so far which will be on the line one more time against the Dutch outfit. Joining Liverpool are Barcelona after the most dramatic of 5-4 wins away at Benfica on Tuesday.
UCL playoffs (top 24)
Confirmed: Atletico Madrid and Atalanta.
In the mix for a top eight spot are Atletico Madrid and Atalanta after both won on Tuesday but they are only certain of at least a top 24 berth for now. The Spaniards edged Bayer Leverkusen while the Italians devastated Sturm Graz to pull ahead of the likes of Arsenal, Leverkusen, Inter and Aston Villa who lost narrowly to Monaco in the principality. ASM are part of a trio of French clubs more or less assured of their top 24 status including Lille and Brest. Borussia Dortmund, Juventus, PSV, Club Brugge, Benfica and Stuttgart are also well-placed with a game to go although Bayern Munich, Milan, Feyenoord and Real Madrid could change that on Wednesday.
Outsiders
Neither advanced nor eliminated, there are a handful of sides who are as close to the top eight as they are the elimination places — Sporting and Feyenoord are on 10 points which means that their next win, or loss, could have massive ramifications. Real Madrid and Celtic also sneak into that conversation given that they are only one point further back of that same tally but the other big names below the Scottish giants have significant work ahead of them with games running out.
In danger
Surprisingly, Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain are both in this band along with Dinamo Zagreb in hovering around the cut-off point with two games left after PSV and Stuttgart won. In a tantalizing twist, the French giants face the Premier League champions as well as the Bundesliga outfit in their two final games which arguably holds the cards to this year’s big name possibly stumbling early on. Both PSG and City could yet avoid it but both will be desperate to not have to wait for the final day when they can likely assure themselves of their knockout place with a win in the penultimate round of games when they meet at Parc des Princes this Wednesday.
Scenarios
- Round of 16:Â Arsenal and Inter can virtually secure a round of 16 spot with a win.
- Knockout playoffs:Â Arsenal and Inter are sure of at least a top 24 finish with a point or better.
- Eliminated:Â Bologna will be eliminated if they fail to win their two remaining games and even six points might not be enough if City, PSV and/or Dinamo claim one point or better from their two remaining games. Salzburg and Girona can take things to a final day with a win only — a draw will not be enough as it leaves them at least four points adrift of the top 24. Sparta and Shakhtar can still have a shot for their final games if they at least draw this week but it will be the slimmest of hopes. PSG nor Stuttgart will be officially eliminated until they play each other should they get a point or better this week but a man combination of nine results elsewhere could doom Paris in the event that they lose to City at home.
- PSG can only go out if:Â They lose to City, Real beat Salzburg, Celtic beat Young Boys, Benfica avoid defeat vs. Barca, Monaco avoid defeat vs. Villa, Sporting avoid defeat vs. Leipzig, PSG beat Red Star, Feyenoord avoid defeat vs. Bayern, Brugge avoid defeat vs. Bayern and Dinamo beat Arsenal.
Long shots
Those teams who can, mathematically at least, still make the knockouts but need a minimum of four points from their two remaining games include Shakhtar Donetsk, Sparta Praha, Girona and Red Bull Salzburg. Many of these sides are just waiting to finally be confirmed as out of the running despite some having made encouraging starts. However, at least for now, they are not 100% guaranteed to not see the knockout phase and that is further evidence of the value that the adoption of this new league phase has brought with it.
Going home
Confirmed: RB Leipzig, Young Boys, Slovan Bratislava, Bologna, Red Star Belgrade and Sturm Graz.
Red Bull’s flagship side Leipzig was the first to fall this edition which was a surprise as Aston Villa confirmed that premature exit with a home loss in the sixth round of games. Salzburg are expected to follow shortly although Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava were the next two after the Germans. Slovan Bratislava are on zero points from seven games which will likely set a very low future bar in terms of smaller teams exiting with some pride.
