The impact of these tariffs on the world economy will be huge.
They can be measured by the lines on a chart of US tariff revenue jumping to levels not seen in a century – beyond those seen during the high protectionism of the 1930s.
Or in the coming stock market bloodbath, especially in Asia.
But the true measure of these changes will be significant changes to long-standing global avenues of trade.
Will Europe, including Germany and the UK continue to send millions of luxury cars to the US?
Will Britain and Ireland be able to export billions in pharmaceuticals with these levels of tariffs?
Will Vietnam and Cambodia be able to trade clothes and electronics with the US, after being accused of essentially being a front for China?
At its heart this is a universal tariff of 10% on all imports into the US for everyone, coming in on Friday night. On top of that dozens of “worst offenders” will be charged reciprocally for having trade surpluses.
The tariffs on Asian nations are truly remarkable. They will break the business models of thousands of companies, factories, and possibly entire nations.
Some of the supply chains created by the world’s biggest companies will be broken instantly. The inevitable impact will surely be to push them towards China.
Is this just a grand negotiation? Well the US administration appears to be claiming the tariff revenue for planned tax cuts. The scope for quick adjustment seems limited. As one White House official said bluntly: “This is not a negotiation, it’s a national emergency”.
The aim of the policy is to get the US trade deficit “back to zero”. This is a total rewiring of the world economy.
But shifting factories will take years. Tariffs at this scale on East Asia especially at 30 or 40% will hike prices of clothes, toys and electronics much more quickly.
The question now is how the rest of the world responds.
There are opportunities for some consumers in Europe to benefit from cheaper diverted trade in clothes and electronics. Outside of an inward-looking number one world economy, the rest of the big economies may choose to integrate trade more closely.
As Tesla’s slumping sales may illustrate, only part of this story is about the response of governments. These days consumers can retaliate too. It may be a new sort of social media trade war.
Does Europe want to continue buying the consumer brands created in the US, and loved across the world?
Does the world continue to accept a monopoly in the provision of social media services by big US tech?
Do American consumers want to pay the spike in prices for basic staple goods?
Will US authorities raise interest rates to combat the inevitable spike in inflation?
A messy global trade war looks inevitable.
